Английский язык для специальных и академических целей: Международные отношения и зарубежное регионоведение. Часть 1 - [97]

The Syrian army suffered heavy defeats at the hands of IS in July and August, though these were little reported in the West. It has long been clear that the army was short of combat troops and could only fight one front at a time. Mr Assad appears to have calculated that the rise of IS would be to his political advantage because most of the world would prefer him to the fundamentalists. But he underestimated the military strength of IS since they captured Mosul on 10 June.

No truce is likely to happen unless there is pressure on both sides by their outside backers — notably the US, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iran. Much would depend on how realistic they are: the US and Saudi Arabia still want the departure of Assad, but this has been very unlikely since the second half of 2012. Demanding this at the Geneva II talks in February effectively killed off any diplomatic framework for negotiations to end the conflict. Critics of multilateral ceasefires argue that this would mean accepting that the Assad government stay in place, but the Syrian government is not departing in any case. The Assad government may believe that it is gradually reasserting its authority over the rest of the country, but these advances are at a snail's pace and its grip on ground regained is fragile. The Syrian army might not be able to withstand an all-out offensive by IS.

IS is growing stronger while its opponents in Syria are weakening. It is recruiting fast in all parts of its caliphate. A study by the National Security Adviser's office in Baghdad showed that in the past, where jihadis took over an area with 100 fighters, they could recruit between 500 and 1,000. IS seems prepared for air strikes, evacuating its fighters and heavy weapons from buildings where they are identifiable. US air power did not win the war in Afghanistan and is even less likely to do so in Iraq or Syria.

A ceasefire in Syria would remove one of IS's strongest cards, which is the fear of the Sunnis that, bad though IS may be, the alternative of government re-occupation is even worse. For its part, the government may fear no longer being able to face Syrians with a stark choice between Assad and jihadis who chop off heads.

The restoration of a more normal civilian life in Syria would be an immense advance. Some of the 3 million refugees and 6.5 million internally displaced people out of a total population of 22 million would be able to go home. There might be a re-emergence of more moderate individuals and groups marginalised or driven underground since 2011.

Appendix

At the moment, the political landscape in Syria must look good from the point of view of IS. Its opponents are divided. The US is backing a group of moderates who barely exist and wants to weaken the Assad government. In the past week some of the heaviest fighting in Syria has been IS's attack on the Kurdish enclave of Kobani, also known as Ayn al-Arab, close to Turkey. It is defended by the fighters of the YPG Kurdish militia who are the Syrian branch of the mainly Turkish Kurd PKK which the US labels as “terrorist”.

US policy has an Alice in Wonderland absurdity about it, everything being the opposite of what it appears to be. The so-called “coalition of the willing” is, in practice, very unwilling to fight IS, while those hitherto excluded, such as Iran, the Syrian government, Hezbollah and the PKK, are the ones actually fighting. A truce between the government and moderate rebels in Syria would enable both to devote their resources to fighting IS, as they need to do quickly if they are to avoid defeat.

970 words (abridged)

№3 (образец задания для промежуточного контроля)

UK: FROM EMPIRE TO DEMOCRACY

Write an essay of300-350 words on one of the following topics:

1. Is the result of the Scottish referendum a missed opportunity?

2. Was the British Empire beneficial to its colonies?

3. Why are Britons disenchanted with politics?

№4 (образец задания для промежуточного контроля)

Факультет МО

Английский язык, второй иностранный, IV курс, 7 семестр

MID-TERM PAPER

I. Translate the following sentences into English. Use Active Vocabulary words.

1. Несмотря на постоянные перестановки в кабинете, экономика страны по-прежнему находится в упадке, и хотя основные проблемы были определены, никто из министров так и не разработал стратегию, которая помогла бы сдержать неконтролируемую инфляцию. [5]

Appendix

2. Не так-то просто убедить жителей Германии и Франции, которые на данный момент являются влиятельными членами ЕС, в необходимости расширения союза дальше на восток. [5]

3. Несмотря на то, что Европейский Союз принимает на себя новые обязательства во многих политических вопросах, основополагающие ценности остаются неизменными. [5]

4. Активно взаимодействуя с мировой общественностью, и говоря от лица всей Европы, Европейский Союз стал образцом для других государств, а ценности, к которым стремится ЕС, послужили основой для других наций и организаций. [8]

5. Попытка избавиться от улик стала убедительным свидетельством в пользу его виновности. [5] ____________________________________________________________________