Экспонента [заметки]
1
Stefan Thurner, Peter Klimek and Rudolf Hanel, Introduction to the Theory of Complex Systems (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2018), p. 8. https://www.oxfordscholarship.com/view/10.1093/oso/9780198821939.001.0001/oso-9780198821939.
2
See also Ricard V. Solé, Phase Transitions, Primers in Complex Systems (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2011).
3
See for example: “Trouble with a Telephone,” New York Times, September 25, 1898.
4
“‘Hobbles’ and Dancing; Women’s New Fashions Will Influence Length of Steps,” New York Times, November 13, 1910; “Judge rails at jazz and dance madness,” New York Times, April 14, 1926.
5
Solé, Phase Transitions, pp. 2–11, pp. 132–136, pp. 186–187.
6
Eric Schmidt and Jared Cohen, The New Digital Age: Reshaping the Future of People, Nations and Business (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2013), p. 55.
7
Университет сингулярности (англ. Singularity University) — одновременно университет, аналитический центр, бизнес-инкубатор и венчурный фонд, базирующийся в Кремниевой долине, с девизом: «Воспитывать, вдохновлять и расширять возможности лидеров, применяя экспоненциальные технологии для решения глобальных проблем человечества». Прим. пер.
8
Peter H. Diamandis and Steven Kotler, Abundance: The Future Is Better Than You Think (New York: Free Press, 2014), p. 213.
9
See, for example, Chris Stokel-Walker, “Politicians Still Don’t Understand the Tech Companies They’re Supposed to Keep in Check. That’s a Problem,” Business Insider, October 10, 2020. https://www.businessinsider.com/tiktok-ban-hearings-politicians-senators-know-nothing-about-tech-2020-10.
10
Чарльз Перси Сноу (1905–1980) — английский писатель, физик, химик и государственный деятель. В 1959 году Сноу прочитал в Кембридже лекцию «Две культуры и научная революция». Изданный отдельной книгой текст этой лекции входит в сотню самых влиятельных книг послевоенного периода, а в начале 1960-х стал поводом для общественной дискуссии о «физиках и лириках», затронувшей СССР. Прим. пер.
11
Charles Percy Snow, The Two Cultures (Cambridge University Press, 2012).
12
Ада Лавлейс (1815–1852) — английский математик. Известна прежде всего описанием вычислительной машины, проект которой был разработан Чарльзом Бэббиджем. Считается первым программистом в истории. Прим. пер.
13
Гиг-экономика — система работы, когда сотрудников не нанимают в штат, а приглашают на конкретные проекты, где они в обозначенные сроки решают поставленные задачи. К этой же категории относится формат работы через платформы, которые соединяют заказчиков и исполнителей. Прим. ред.
14
Sinclair ZX81 — персональный компьютер, выпущенный компанией Sinclair Research в 1981 году. Историческая важность этой модели состоит в том, что это был первый домашний компьютер, стоивший менее 50 фунтов: машина поставлялась по почтовому заказу в форме набора для самостоятельной сборки по цене 49,95 фунта либо в виде готового собранного изделия по цене 69,99 фунта, что привело к большому объему продаж. Прим. ред.
15
In other words, it was a Turing Machine — so named after British mathematician Alan Turing, who devized much of the theory behind computer science. Turing’s tragic death in 1954 meant he never had access to a computer as generally capable as the ZX81, with its 1,024 bytes of memory storage capable of crunching through a superhuman half a million instructions per second.
16
Алан Тьюринг (1912–1954) — английский математик, логик, криптограф, оказавший существенное влияние на развитие информатики. Во время Второй мировой войны Тьюринг работал в Правительственной школе кодов и шифров, располагавшейся в Блетчли-парке, где была сосредоточена работа по взлому шифров и кодов нацистов. Прим. пер.
17
G. E. Moore, “Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits,” Proceedings of the IEEE, 86(1), 1965, pp. 82–85. https://doi.org/10.1109/JPROC.1998.658762.
18
Newton’s laws work at the scale of the everyday and in what is known as “inertial reference frames.” At the very small — the levels of atoms and smaller — we need to rely on quantum physics to describe what is going on. “Non-inertial reference frames,” such as those found when studying cosmology, require different approaches.
19
Cyrus C. M. Mody, The Long Arm of Moore’s Law: Microelectronics and American Science, Inside Technology (Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 2017), pp. 5 and 125.
20
Our World in Data — некоммерческий электронный проект, публикующий в открытом доступе данные о глобальных проблемах человечества, таких как болезни, голод, глобальное потепление, войны, катастрофы, социальное неравенство, бедность. Прим. пер.
21
Computer History Museum, “1958: Silicon Mesa Transistors Enter Commercial Production.”
22
Ray Kurzweil, “Average Transistor Price,” Singularity.com. http://www.singularity.com/charts/page59.html.
23
Dan Hutcheson, “Graphic: Transistor Production Has Reached Astronomical Scales,” IEEE Spectrum, April 2, 2015. https://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/hardware/transistor-production-has-reached-astronomical-scales.
24
James W. Cortada, The Computer in the United States: From Laboratory to Market (Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 1993), p. 117; 95 percent of these were in the US. See also “Early Popular Computers, 1950–1970,” Engineering and Technology History Wiki. https://ethw.org/Early_Popular_Computers,_1950_-_1970.
25
Кристенсен К. Дилемма инноватора. Как из-за новых технологий погибают сильные компании. М.: Альпина Паблишер, 2019. Прим. ред.
26
Horace Dediu, personal correspondence with the author, December 1, 2016.
27
In 1940, 65 percent of American homes had flush toilets. By 1960, it was 90 percent. “Historical Census of Housing Tables — Sewage Disposal.” https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/dec/coh-sewage.html.
28
Paul R. Liegey, “Microwave Oven Regression Model,” U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. https://www.bls.gov/cpi/quality-adjustment/microwave-ovens.htm.
29
30
Alex Wilhelm, “Charting Bird and Lime’s Rapid Growth,” Crunchbase News, September 20, 2018. https://news.crunchbase.com/news/charting-bird-and-limes-rapid-growth/.
31
Computers are so cheap, they turn up in surprising places. Disposable pregnancy tests have a small computer in them — used once and thrown away.
32
Charlotte Burgess, “Future Banking: Creating an ‘Incumbent Challenger’,” Finovate, 2020. https://finovate.com/future-banking-creating-an-incumbent-challenger/.
33
Author’s analysis at Azeem Azhar, “Big Ideas for 2021; China’s Civil-Military Fusion; Tesla’s Infrastructure Advantage; the Climate Decade; Elephant Body Fat & Hegelian Enjoyment ++ #307,” Exponential View. https://www.exponentialview.co/p/ev-307.
34
David Rotman, “We’re Not Prepared for the End of Moore’s Law,” MIT Technology Review, February 24, 2020. https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/02/24/905789/were-not-prepared-for-the-end-of-moores-law/.
35
Ray Kurzweil, “The Law of Accelerating Returns,” Kurzweil.net, 2001. https://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns.
36
Kurzweil also predicts a “singularity” where the capacities of computers exceed those of the human brain. This argument is not relevant to my argument, so I don’t consider it here.
37
Azeem Azhar, “Beneficial Artificial Intelligence: My Conversation with Stuart Russell,” Exponential View, August 22, 2019. https://www.exponentialview.co/p/-beneficial-artificial-intelligence.
38
Dario Amodei and Danny Hernandez, “AI and Compute,” OpenAI, May 16, 2018. https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/.
39
Charles E. Leiserson et al., “There’s Plenty of Room at the Top: What Will Drive Computer Performance after Moore’s Law?” Science 368(6495), June 2020. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aam9744.
40
Jean-François Bobier et al., “A Quantum Advantage in Fighting Climate Change,” BCG Global, January 22, 2020. https://www.bcg.com/publications/2020/quantum-advantage-fighting-climate-change.
41
Bryno85, “James Bond Movies Ranked via IMDb Rating,” IMDb, October 18, 2015. http://www.imdb.com/list/ls078535153/.
42
Gregory F. Nemet, How Solar Energy Became Cheap: A Model for Low-Carbon Innovation (London; New York, NY: Routledge/Taylor & Francis Group, 2019), p. 62.
43
Nathaniel Bullard, “The Energy Revolution That Started in 1954 Is Reaching Its Crescendo,” Bloomberg Green, April 23, 2020. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-23/the-energy-revolution-that-started-in-1954-is-reaching-its-crescendo.
44
Ramez Naam, “The Exponential March of Solar Energy,” Exponential View, May 14, 2020. https://www.exponentialview.co/p/-the-exponential-march-of-solar-energy.
45
“Levelized Cost of Energy and Levelized Cost of Storage-2020,” Lazard, October 19, 2020. http://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-and-levelized-cost-of-storage-2020/.
46
Sheldon Reback, “Solar, Wind Provide Cheapest Power for Two-Thirds of Globe,” Bloomberg, 27 August 2019. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-27/solar-wind-provide-cheapest-power-for-two-thirds-of-globe-map.
47
Justin Rowlatt, “What the Heroin Industry Can Teach Us about Solar Power,” BBC News, July 27, 2020. https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53450688.
48
Jon Moore and Nat Bullard, BNEF Executive Factbook 2021(BloombergNEF, 2 March 2021).
49
Kris A. Wetterstrand, “DNA Sequencing Costs: Data from the NHGRI Genome Sequencing Program,” National Human Genome Research Institute. https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Costs-Data.
50
Antonio Relgado, “China’s BGI Says It Can Sequence a Genome for Just $100,” MIT Technology Review, February 26, 2020. https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615289/china-bgi-100-dollar-genome/.
51
Antonio Relgado, “EmTech: Illumina Says 228,000 Human Genomes Will Be Sequenced This Year,” MIT Technology Review, September 24, 2014. https://www.technologyreview.com/2014/09/24/111298/emtech-illumina-says-228000-human-genomes-will-be-sequenced-this-year/.
52
Zachary D. Stephens et al., “Big Data: Astronomical or Genomical?” PLoS Biology, 13(7), July 2015. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1002195.
53
See discussion at “Why Has The Cost Of Genome Sequencing Decline So Rapidly?.” Biostars forum. https://www.biostars.org/p/42753/. and at “Next-Generation-Sequencing.v1.5.4 @albertvilella.” https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1GMMfhyLK0-q8XkIo3YxlWaZA5vVMuhU1kg41g4xLkXc/edit#gid=1569422585.
54
Michael Chui and others, “The Bio Revolution: Innovations Transforming Economies, Societies and Our Lives.” (McKinsey Global Institute, 2020).
55
Чарльз Халл (р. 1939) — соучредитель, исполнительный вице-президент и главный директор по технологиям компании 3D Systems. В 1984 году запатентовал аппарат для стереолитографии. Прим. ред.
56
Ной Рафорд (р. 1978) — американский футурист, специалист в области государственной политики, стратегии и новых технологий, один из основателей фонда Dubai Future Foundation и Музея будущего в ОАЭ. Прим. ред.
57
Conversations with the author, November 2018 and August 2020. See also India Block, “World’s Largest 3D-Printed Building Completes in Dubai,” Dezeen, December 22, 2019. https://www.dezeen.com/2019/12/22/apis-cor-worlds-largest-3d-printed-building-dubai/.
58
Christopher L. Benson, Giorgio Triulzi and Christopher L. Magee, “Is There a Moore’s Law for 3D Printing?” 3D Printing and Additive Manufacturing, 5(1), March 2018, pp. 53–62. https://doi.org/10.1089/3dp.2017.0041.
59
Wohlers Associates, Wohlers Report 2020.
60
Richard Lipsey, Kenneth Carlaw and Clifford Bekar, Economic Transformations: General Purpose Technologies and Long-Term Economic Growth (Oxford University Press, 2006).
61
Lipsey et al., Economic Transformations, p. xvi.
62
James Bessen, Learning by Doing: The Real Connection between Innovation, Wages, and Wealth (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2015), p. 49.
63
Карлота Перес (р. 1939) — профессор технологии и социально-общественного развития, преподаватель Cambridge Judge Business School при Кембриджском университете. Более всего известна концепцией технико-экономических сдвигов парадигм и теорией больших волн — развитием теории циклов Кондратьева. Прим. ред.
64
Carlota Perez, Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2003).
65
“Internet Growth Statistics 1995 to 2021 — the Global Village Online.” https://www.internetworldstats.com/emarketing.htm.
66
Steven Tweedie, “The World’s First Smartphone, Simon, Was Created 15 Years before the iPhone,” Business Insider, June 14, 2015. https://www.businessinsider.com/worlds-first-smartphone-simon-launched-before-iphone-2015-6.
67
Andrew Meola, “Rise of M-Commerce: Mobile Ecommerce Shopping Stats & Trends in 2021,” Business Insider, 30 December 2020. https://www.businessinsider.com/mobile-commerce-shopping-trends-stats.
68
T. P. Wright, “Factors Affecting the Cost of Airplanes,” Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, 3(4), February 1936, pp. 122–128. https://doi.org/10.2514/8.155.
69
Béla Nagy et al., “Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress,” PLOS ONE, 8(2), 2013, e52669. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0052669.
70
Peter Ha, “All-TIME 100 Gadgets,” Time, October 25, 2010. http://content.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,2023689_2023703_2023613,00.html.
71
“The Drive to Decarbonize: Ramez Naam in Conversation with Azeem Azhar,” Exponential View with Azeem Azhar [podcast], 15 April 2020. https://hbr.org/podcast/2020/04/the-drive-to-decarbonize.
72
Marcelo Gustavo Molina and Pedro Enrique Mercado, “Modelling and Control Design of Pitch-Controlled Variable Speed Wind Turbines,” in Ibrahim H. Al-Bahadly, ed., Wind Turbines (InTech, 2011), p. 376. https://doi.org/10.5772/15880.
73
Vaclav Smil, “Wind Turbines Just Keep Getting Bigger, But There’s a Limit,” IEEE Spectrum, October 22, 2019. https://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/renewables/wind-turbines-just-keep-getting-bigger-but-theres-a-limit.
74
Уильям Гросс (р. 1944) — американский финансист, миллиардер из рейтинга журнала Forbes. В настоящее время развивает три компании, специализирующиеся на возобновляемой энергетике. Прим. ред.
75
Hyejin Youn et al., “Invention as a Combinatorial Process: Evidence from US Patents,” Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 12(106), May 2015, 20150272. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2015.0272.
76
RFC (Request for Comments) — так называемое рабочее предложение, документ из серии пронумерованных информационных документов интернета, содержащих технические спецификации и стандарты, широко применяемые во Всемирной сети. Прим. пер.
77
Jonathan Postel, Simple Mail Transfer Protocol (Information Sciences Institute, August 1982). https://tools.ietf.org/html/rfc821.
78
David Crocker, Standard for the Format of ARPA Internet Text Messages (University of Delaware, August 1982). https://tools.ietf.org/html/rfc822.
79
Azeem Azhar, “Disrupting the Insurance Industry with AI,” Exponential View with Azeem Azhar [podcast], August 14, 2019. https://hbr.org/podcast/2019/08/disrupting-the-insurance-industry-with-ai.
80
Authors analysis of the UCS Satellite Database, December 8, 2005. https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/satellite-database.
81
Tereza Pultrova, “ArianeGroup Futurist Sees Smallsat Standardization as Key for Timely Launch,” SpaceNews, October 25, 2017. https://spacenews.com/arianegroup-futurist-sees-smallsat-standardization-as-key-for-timely-launch/.
82
Ian J. Goodfellow et al., “Generative Adversarial Networks,” Cornell University Machine Learning Statistics, June 10, 2014. https://arxiv.org/abs/1406.2661.
83
Until the Industrial Revolution, information traveled around the world at about one mph; this increased to around three to four mph in the 1800s. The arrival of the telegraph in the latter part of that century increased the speed of transmission by nearly one hundred times. The internet has made the spread of information essentially instantaneous. See Gregory Clark, A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World, The Princeton Economic History of the Western World (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2007), pp. 306–307.
84
“ArXiv Usage Statistics,” Cornell University ArXiv. https://arxiv.org/help/stats.
85
Martin Rittman, “Research Preprints: Server List”. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/4/d/17RgfuQcGJHKSsSJwZZn0oiXAnimZu2sZsWp8Z6ZaYYo/edit#gid=0.
86
“COVID-19 Primer.” https://covid19primer.com/.
87
“The 2020 State of the Octoverse,” Github Inc. https://octoverse.github.com/.
88
2,5 м в ширину, 2,6 м в высоту и 3, 6 или 12,2 м в длину. Прим. ред.
89
Marc Levinson, Outside the Box: How Globalization Changed from Moving Stuff to Spreading Ideas (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2020), pp. 61–67.
90
“HMM Algeciras: World’s Biggest Container Ship Arrives in Essex,” BBC News, June 14, 2020. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-essex-53041733.
91
“Container Port Traffic (TEU: 20 Foot Equivalent Units),” World Bank Data. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IS.SHP.GOOD.TU.
92
Binyamin Appelbaum, quoted in Azeem Azhar, “How Free-Market Economists Got It Wrong,” Exponential View, December 27, 2019. https://www.exponentialview.co/p/-how-free-market-economists-got-it.
93
Milton Friedman, “A Friedman Doctrine — The Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits,” New York Times, September 13, 1970. https://www.nytimes.com/1970/09/13/archives/a-friedman-doctrine-the-social-responsibility-of-business-is-to.html.
94
Название дано за кустарную конструкцию в виде штабеля блоков. Прим. ред.
95
Dominic Ponsford, “Economist Readership Analysed: Detailed Breakdown of Brand Reach for H1 2020,” Press Gazette, August 14, 2020. https://www.pressgazette.co.uk/economist-readership-brand-reach/.
96
Research and Development (англ.) — исследования и разработка. В российской практике используется также определение НИОКР — научно-исследовательские и опытно-конструкторские работы. Прим. ред.
97
The UK’s national R&D spend was £37 billion, or approximately $47 billion. See “Research and Development Expenditure,” Office for National Statistics. https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/researchanddevelopmentexpenditure.
98
81 Federal Research and Development (R&D) Funding: FY2020, Congressional Research Service, March 18, 2020. https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45715.pdf.
99
Trefis Team, “How Big Is Roche’s R&D Expense?” Forbes, December 19, 2019. https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2019/12/19/how-big-is-roches-rd-expense/.
100
Matthew Chapman, “Are Retail Labs Really the Path to Innovation?.” Campaign Live, February 2, 2016. https://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/retail-labs-really-path-innovation/1381099.
101
“Werner Vogels, Interview with Jon Erlichman of Bloomberg,” July 21, 2020. https://twitter.com/JonErlichman/status/1285628647609638915.
102
The other is people. People costs didn’t deliver the same levels of deflation.
103
600 million liters is 600,000 cubic meters, or a cuboid 100 meters × 100 meters × 60 meters high.
104
Al Bartlett, “Arithmetic, Population and Energy — a Talk by Al Bartlett.” https://www.albartlett.org/presentations/arithmetic_population_energy.html.
105
«Пределы роста» (англ. The Limits to Growth) — доклад Римскому клубу, опубликованный в 1972 году. Содержит результаты моделирования роста человеческой популяции и исчерпания природных ресурсов. Прим. пер.
106
Joanna Stern, “TikTok?! Clout-Chasing Millennial Learns About Memes and More,” WSJ Video, January 23, 2020. https://www.wsj.com/video/series/joanna-stern-personal-technology/tiktok-clout-chasing-millennial-learns-about-memes-and-more/3C218B25-59AA-437C-BE7A-3F215B786DDA.
107
Of course, there are stories from antiquity that tackle this question as well. These normally tell the story of a vizier who asks to be rewarded by grains of rice placed on the squares of a chessboard. For every subsequent square, he asks for the amount of rice to be doubled. It is an exponential process that reaches astronomical quantities by the end of the board.
108
See, for example, Victor Stango and Jonathan Zinman, “Exponential Growth Bias and Household Finance,” Journal of Finance, 64(6), December 2009, pp. 2807–2849. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540–6261.2009.01518.x. and Matthew R. Levy and Joshua Tasoff, “Exponential-Growth Bias and Overconfidence,” Journal of Economic Psychology, 58, 2017, pp. 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2016.11.001.
109
Johan Almenberg and Christer Gerdes, “Exponential Growth Bias and Financial Literacy,” Applied Economics Letters, 19(17), 2012, pp. 1693–1696. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2011.652772.
110
William A. Wagenaar and Sabato D. Sagaria, “Misperception of Exponential Growth,” Perception & Psychophysics, 18(6), November 1975, pp. 416–422. https://doi.org/10.3758/BF03204114.
111
Fernand Braudel, The Mediterranean and the Mediterranean World in the Age of Philip II (New York: Harper & Row, 1972), p. 20.
112
Pascal Boyer and Michael Bang Petersen, “Folk-Economic Beliefs: An Evolutionary Cognitive Model,” Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 41, 2018, E158. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X17001960.
113
Эффект или график хоккейной клюшки — резкий взлет какого-либо показателя после периода спада или стагнации. Прим. пер.
114
Duff McDonald, The Firm: The Story of Mckinsey and Its Secret Influence on American Business (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2014), pp. 178–179.
115
“Planet of the Phones,” Economist, February 26, 2015. https://www.economist.com/leaders/2015/02/26/planet-of-the-phones.
116
Simon Evans, “Solar Is Now ‘Cheapest Electricity in History,’ Confirms IEA,” Carbon Brief, 13 October 2020. https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea.
117
Ray Kurzweil, The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence (New York, NY: Penguin, 2000).
118
Suzana Herculano-Houzel, “The Human Brain in Numbers: A Linearly Scaled-up Primate Brain,” Frontiers in Human Neuroscience, 3 November 2009. https://doi.org/10.3389/neuro.09.031.2009.
119
Carl Zimmer, “100 Trillion Connections: New Efforts Probe and Map the Brain’s Detailed Architecture,” Scientific American, January 2011. https://doi.org/10.1038/scientificamerican0111-58.
120
Even if we could build a machine with the complexity of the human brain — comprising artificial rather than real neurons, and connections between them — it isn’t clear this would give rise to anything that can do what the human brain does.
121
Graham Rapier, “Elon Musk Says Tesla Will Have 1 Million Robo-Taxis on the Road Next Year, and Some People Think the Claim Is So Unrealistic That He’s Being Compared to PT Barnum,” Business Insider, April 23, 2019. https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-robo-taxis-elon-musk-pt-barnum-circus-2019-4.
122
Andrew Barclay, “Why Is It So Hard to Make a Truly Self-Driving Car?” South China Morning Post, July 5, 2018. https://www.scmp.com/abacus/tech/article/3028605/why-it-so-hard-make-truly-self-driving-car.
123
Rani Molla, “How Apple’s iPhone Changed the World: 10 Years in 10 Charts,” Vox, June 26, 2017. https://www.vox.com/2017/6/26/15821652/iphone-apple-10-year-anniversary-launch-mobile-stats-smart-phone-steve-jobs.
124
Ritwik Banerjee, Joydeep Bhattacharya and Priyama Majumdar, “Exponential-Growth Prediction Bias and Compliance with Safety Measures Related to COVID-19,” Social Science & Medicine, 268, January 2021, 113473. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.113473.
125
Инкрементализм — концепция, утверждающая, что перемены в политической системе общества происходят только путем незначительных, малых изменений и шагов, каждый из которых должен быть тщательно оценен, прежде чем приступить к осуществлению следующего этапа. Прим. пер.
126
«Пауза Энгельса» — период с 1790 по 1840 год. Аллен назвал его в честь Фридриха Энгельса, который описывает этот период в своей книге «Положение рабочего класса в Англии» (1845). Прим. пер.
127
Robert C. Allen, “Engels’ Pause: Technical Change, Capital Accumulation, and Inequality in the British Industrial Revolution,” Explorations in Economic History, 46(4) 2009, pp. 418–435. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2009.04.004.
128
Hans-Joachim Voth, “The Longest Years: New Estimates of Labor Input in England, 1760–1830,” The Journal of Economic History, 61(4), December 2001, pp. 1065–1082. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022050701042085. See also Charlie Giattino, Esteban Ortiz-Ospina and Max Roser, “Working Hours,” Our World in Data, 2013. https://ourworldindata.org/working-hours.
129
Роберт Саути был поэтом-лауреатом (придворным поэтом, обязанным писать оды в честь монаршей семьи). Именно поэтому свои наблюдения он публиковал под псевдонимами. Прим. пер.
130
Don Manuel Alvarez Espriella (pseudonym of Robert Southey), Letters from England, Letter XXXVI, “Thursday July 7—Birmingham 1814,” p. 56.
131
Friedrich Engels, The Condition of the Working-Class in England (Panther, 1969). https://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1845/condition-working-class/.
132
Tony Blair, conversation with the author, London, 2019.
133
Акт от 29 августа 1833 года распространялся на все прядильные и ткацкие фабрики и впервые установил различие между подростками и малолетними работниками. Он предписывал медицинское освидетельствование малолетних в пригодности их к фабричной работе и обязательное посещение малолетними школ. Прим. пер.
134
Энтони Гидденс (р. 1938) — один из самых выдающихся современных социологов, автор 34 книг, изданных на 29 языках. В 2007 году занял пятое место в рейтинге самых популярных авторов книг по гуманитарным наукам. Прим. ред.
135
Anthony Giddens, The Constitution of Society: Outline of the Theory of Structuration (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1986), p. 24.
136
Ричард Нельсон (р. 1930) — американский экономист, профессор, один из создателей отдельного направления в экономическом анализе — эволюционной экономики. Прим. ред.
137
Richard R. Nelson, Technology, Institutions, and Economic Growth (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2005), p. 153.
138
Reuters, “Galileo ‘Heresies’ Still Under Study, Pope Says,” New York Times, May 10, 1983. https://www.nytimes.com/1983/05/10/world/galileo-heresies-still-under-study-pope-says.html.
139
“Vatican Admits Galileo Was Right,” New Scientist, November 7, 1992. https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg13618460-600-vatican-admits-galileo-was-right/.
140
Gareth A. Lloyd and Steven J. Sasson, “Electronic Still Camera,” US Patent No. 4131919A, 1977. https://patents.google.com/patent/US4131919/en.
141
James Estrin, “Kodak’s First Digital Moment,” Lens [blog], New York Times, August 12, 2015. https://lens.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/08/12/kodaks-first-digital-moment/.
142
143
Scott D. Anthony, “Kodak’s Downfall Wasn’t About Technology,” Harvard Business Review, July 15, 2016. https://hbr.org/2016/07/kodaks-downfall-wasnt-about-technology.
144
Wire Staff, “May 26, 1995: Gates, Microsoft Jump on ‘Internet Tidal Wave’,” Wired, May 2, 2010. https://www.wired.com/2010/05/0526bill-gates-internet-memo/.
145
Joel Hruska, “Ballmer: iPhone Has ‘No Chance’ of Gaining Significant Market Share,” Ars Technica, April 30, 2007. https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2007/04/ballmer-says-iphone-has-no-chance-to-gain-significant-market-share/.
146
Chris Smith, “Steve Ballmer Finally Explains Why He Thought the iPhone Would Be a Flop,” BGR, November 4, 2016. https://bgr.com/2016/11/04/ballmer-iphone-quote-explained/.
147
Уильям Огборн (1886–1959) — американский профессор, доктор социологии. Один из создателей социологии науки и социологии техники, исследовал последствия научно-технического прогресса для общества. Прим. ред.
148
W. F. Ogburn, Social Change with Respect to Culture and Original Nature (New York: B. W. Huebsch, 1923), pp. 200–236.
149
Amanda Lenhart, “Chapter 3: Video Games Are Key Elements in Friendships for Many Boys,” in Teens, Technology & Friendships (Pew Research Center: Internet & Technology, August 6, 2015). https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2015/08/06/chapter-3-video-games-are-key-elements-in-friendships-for-many-boys/.
150
Douglass C. North, Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance (Cambridge University Press, 1990). https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511808678.
151
“‘No Place for Discontent’: A History of the Family Dinner in America,” NPR, February 16, 2016. https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2016/02/16/459693979/no-place-for-discontent-a-history-of-the-family-dinner-in-america.
152
Kathleen Thelen, How Institutions Evolve: The Political Economy of Skills in Germany, Britain, the United States, and Japan (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2004). https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511790997.
153
«Прерывистое равновесие» — эволюционная концепция, в основе которой лежит постулат о чередовании этапов бурного развития с этапами полного консерватизма, без плавного перехода между этапами. Прим. ред.
154
Рональд Коуз (1910–2013) — английский экономист, один из родоначальников нового институционализма, лауреат Нобелевской премии по экономике 1991 года. Прим. ред.
155
R. H. Coase, “The Nature of the Firm,” Economica, 4(16), November 1937, pp. 386–405. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468–0335.1937.tb00002.x.
156
Geoffrey B. West, Scale: The Universal Laws of Growth, Innovation, Sustainability, and the Pace of Life in Organisms, Cities, Economies, and Companies (New York: Penguin Press, 2017), pp. 387–410.
157
Myoung Cha and Flora Yu, “Pharma’s First-to-Market Advantage,” McKinsey & Company, September 1, 2014. https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/pharmaceuticals-and-medical-products/our-insights/pharmas-first-to-market-advantage.
158
“Car Registrations,” SMMT. https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/.
159
“TV Manufacturers: LCD TV Market Share Worldwide 2018,” Statista. https://www.statista.com/statistics/267095/global-market-share-of-lcd-tv-manufacturers/.
160
“Standard Ogre,” Economist, December 23, 1999. https://www.economist.com/business/1999/12/23/standard-ogre.
161
“Teen iPhone Ownership Hits an All-Time High in Long-Running Survey,” MacRumors, April 8, 2020. https://www.macrumors.com/2020/04/08/teen-iphone-ownership-hits-all-time-high/.
162
Keach Hagey and Suzanne Vranica, “How Covid-19 Supercharged the Advertising ‘Triopoly’ of Google, Facebook
163
Liyin Yeo, “The U. S. Rideshare Industry: Uber vs. Lyft,” Bloomberg Second Measure, 2020. https://secondmeasure.com/datapoints/rideshare-industry-overview/.
164
John Van Reenen and Christina Patterson, “Research: The Rise of Superstar Firms Has Been Better for Investors than for Employees,” Harvard Business Review, May 11, 2017. https://hbr.org/2017/05/research-the-rise-of-superstar-firms-has-been-better-for-investors-than-for-employees.
165
James Manyika et al., “Superstars”: The Dynamics of Firms, Sectors, and Cities Leading the Global Economy (McKinsey & Company, 24 October 2018). https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/innovation-and-growth/superstars-the-dynamics-of-firms-sectors-and-cities-leading-the-global-economy.
166
David Autor et al., “The Fall of the Labor Share and the Rise of Superstar Firms,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 135(2), May 2020, pp. 645–709. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjaa004.
167
“Companies — The Rise of the Superstars,” Economist, September 15, 2016. https://www.economist.com/special-report/2016/09/15/the-rise-of-the-superstars.
168
“What Drives Productivity Growth?” United States Census Bureau. https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/10/what-drives-productivity-growth.html.
169
Annual Report of the Directors of American Telephone & Telegraph Company to the Stockholders (Boston: Geo H. Ellis Co., 1908), p. 23.
170
The canonical description of this is in Michael E. Porter, Competitive Advantage: Creating and Sustaining Superior Performance (New York: Free Press, 1998).
171
Laure Claire Reillier and Benoit Reillier, Platform Strategy: How to Unlock the Power of Communities and Networks to Grow Your Business (London: Routledge, 2017), p. 4.
172
“EBay’s US Sales Grow 22 percent in 2020 Adding 11 Million New Customers,” Digital Commerce 360, February 17, 2021. https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/article/ebays-sales/.
173
“Alibaba: Cumulative Active Online Buyers 2020,” Statista. https://www.statista.com/statistics/226927/alibaba-cumulative-active-online-buyers-taobao-tmall/.
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Alex Sherman, “TikTok Reveals Detailed User Numbers for the First Time,” CNBC, August 24, 2020. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/24/tiktok-reveals-us-global-user-growth-numbers-for-first-time.html.
175
Sangeet Paul Choudary, Platform Scale: How an Emerging Business Model Helps Startups Build Large Empires with Minimum Investment (Singapore: Platform Thinking Labs Pte. Ltd, 2015). p. 36.
176
The best book on this subject is written by my friend Stian Westlake and his collaborator, Jonathan Haskel. See Jonathan Haskel and Stian Westlake, Capitalism without Capital: The Rise of the Intangible Economy (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2018).
177
Intangible Asset Market Value Study, Ocean Tomo. https://www.oceantomo.com/intangible-asset-market-value-study/.
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Stian Westlake, quoted in Azeem Azhar, “Understanding the Intangible Economy,” Exponential View, July 5, 2019. https://www.exponentialview.co/p/capitalism-without-capital.
179
World Intellectual Property Report 2017: Intangible Capital in Global Value Chains (World Intellectual Property Organization, 2017).
180
Barney Pell, personal conversation with the author, June 2015.
181
Matt Turck, “The Power of Data Network Effects,” Matt Turck [blog], 2016. https://mattturck.com/the-power-of-data-network-effects/.
182
Seyed M. Mirtaheri et al., “A Brief History of Web Crawlers,” in CASCON ‘13: Proceedings of the 2013 Conference of the Center for Advanced Studies on Collaborative Research (Toronto: IBM Corp., 2013), pp. 40–54.
183
Tim O’Reilly, “Network Effects in Data,” O’Reilly Radar, October 27, 2008. http://radar.oreilly.com/2008/10/network-effects-in-data.html.
184
West, Scale, p. 393.
185
Author analysis of various company disclosures.
186
“Amount of Original Content Titles on Netflix 2019,” Statista. https://www.statista.com/statistics/883491/netflix-original-content-titles/; Gavin Bridge, “Netflix Released More Originals in 2019 Than the Entire TV Industry Did in 2005,” Variety, December 17, 2019. https://variety.com/2019/tv/news/netflix-more-2019-originals-than-entire-tv-industry-in-2005-1203441709/.
187
W. Brian Arthur, “Increasing Returns and the New World of Business,” Harvard Business Review, July 1, 1996. https://hbr.org/1996/07/increasing-returns-and-the-new-world-of-business.
188
Peter Thiel, “Competition Is for Losers,” Wall Street Journal, September 12, 2014. https://online.wsj.com/articles/peter-thiel-competition-is-for-losers-1410535536.
189
CogX, “Bringing Inclusive Financial Services to the World,” June 15, 2018. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m0YT4O4CWG4.
190
C. K. Prahalad and Gary Hamel, “The Core Competence of the Corporation,” Harvard Business Review, May 1, 1990. https://hbr.org/1990/05/the-core-competence-of-the-corporation.
191
Elizabeth Gibney, “Google Revives Controversial Cold-Fusion Experiments,” Nature, 569(7758), 27 May 2019, p. 611. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-019-01683-9.
192
Генеральный солиситор США (англ. Solicitor General of the United States) — глава Отдела генерального солиситора в Министерстве юстиции. Представляет исполнительную власть в Верховном суде по всем категориям дел, затрагивающим интересы США в целом, и от имени правительства осуществляет надзор за ведением тяжб во всех апелляционных судах. Прим. ред.
193
“Apple Announces App Store Small Business Program,” Apple Newsroom, November 2020. https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2020/11/apple-announces-app-store-small-business-program/.
194
Austen Goslin, “Why Fortnite Is the Most Important Game of the Decade,” Polygon, November 14, 2019. https://www.polygon.com/2019/11/14/20965516/fortnite-battle-royale-most-important-game-2010s.
195
“Antitrust: Google Fined €1.49 Billion for Online Advertising Abuse,” European Commission, March 20, 2019. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_19_1770.
196
Dimitrios Katsifis, “The CMA Publishes Final Report on Online Platforms and Digital Advertising,” The Platform Law Blog, July 6, 2020. https://theplatformlaw.blog/2020/07/06/the-cma-publishes-final-report-on-online-platforms-and-digital-advertising/.
197
Yoram Wijngaard, personal correspondence between Dealroom and the author, March 30, 2021.
198
Dashun Wang and James A. Evans, “Research: When Small Teams Are Better than Small Ones,” Harvard Business Review, January 21, 2019. https://hbr.org/2019/02/research-when-small-teams-are-better-than-big-ones.
199
Joel Klinger, Juan Mateos-Garcia and Konstantinos Stathoulopoulos, “A Narrowing of AI Research?” arXiv:2009.10385 [cs.CY], 2020. http://arxiv.org/abs/2009.10385.
200
Michael Gofman and Zhao Jin, “Artificial Intelligence, Human Capital, and Innovation,” SSRN Electronic Journal, October 2019. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3449440.
201
Azeem Azhar, “Beneficial Artificial Intelligence: My Conversation with Stuart Russell,” August 22, 2019. https://www.exponentialview.co/p/-beneficial-artificial-intelligence.
202
Gofman and Jin, “Artificial Intelligence.”
203
Klinger, Mateos-Garcia and Stathoulopoulos, “A Narrowing of AI Research?”
204
“A Tech CEO’s Guide to Taxes,” Economist, January 9, 2021. https://www.economist.com/business/2021/01/09/a-tech-ceos-guide-to-taxes.
205
Vanessa Houlder, “Q&A: What Is the Double Irish?” 2014. https://www.ft.com/content/f7a2b958-4fc8-11e4-908e-00144feab7de.
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Richard Waters, “Google to End Use of “Double Irish” as Tax Loophole Set to Close,” 2020. https://www.ft.com/content/991f11ae-2c51-11ea-bc77-65e4aa615551.
207
Sanjana Varghese, “This Is Why Silicon Valley Giants Are Paying Such Low Taxes in the UK,” Wired, October 12, 2018. https://www.wired.co.uk/article/facebook-uk-tax-bill.
208
Lina M. Khan, “Amazon’s Antitrust Paradox,” Yale Law Journal, 126(3), January 2017. https://www.yalelawjournal.org/note/amazons-antitrust-paradox.
209
Authors analysis of various issues of the Ofcom Communications Market Report.
210
“The Digital Markets Act: Ensuring Fair and Open Digital Markets,” European Commission. https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/priorities-2019-2024/europe-fit-digital-age/digital-markets-act-ensuring-fair-and-open-digital-markets_en.
211
“BT Agrees to Legal Separation of Openreach,” Ofcom, March 10, 2017. https://www.ofcom.org.uk/about-ofcom/latest/media/media-releases/2017/bt-agrees-to-legal-separation-of-openreach.
212
“The Digital Services Act: Ensuring a Safe and Accountable Online Environment,” European Commission. https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/priorities-2019-2024/europe-fit-digital-age/digital-services-act-ensuring-safe-and-accountable-online-environment_en.
213
Игра слов: в оригинале глава называется Labor’s Loves Lost — это перевертыш названия пьесы Уильяма Шекспира «Бесплодные усилия любви» (Love’s Labour’s Lost). Прим. пер.
214
Larry Elliott, “Millions of UK Workers at Risk of Being Replaced by Robots,” Guardian, March 24, 2017. https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/mar/24/millions-uk-workers-risk-replaced-robots-study-warns.
215
Alex Williams, “Will Robots Take Our Children’s Jobs?” New York Times, December 11, 2017. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/11/style/robots-jobs-children.html.
216
Форд М. Роботы наступают. М.: Альпина нон-фикшн, 2016. Прим. пер.
217
Нед Лудд, также известный как король Лудд или генерал Лудд, которому приписывалось уничтожение двух чулочных станков, лишивших работы опытных вязальщиц. Исторических доказательств существования Неда Лудда не существует. Прим. пер.
218
“Labor: Sabotage at Lordstown?” Time, February 7, 1972. http://content.time.com/time/subscriber/article/0,33009,905747,00.html.
219
John Maynard Keynes, “Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren,” in Essays in Persuasion (London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2010), pp. 321–332. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-59072-8_25.
220
Creative Destruction Lab, “Geoff Hinton: On Radiology,” November 24, 2016. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2HMPRXstSvQ.
221
Paul Daugherty, H. James Wilson and Paul Michelman, “Revisiting the Jobs That Artificial Intelligence Will Create,” MIT Sloan Management Review (Summer 2017).
222
Lana Bandoim, “Robots Are Cleaning Grocery Store Floors During the Coronavirus Outbreak,” Forbes, April 8, 2020. https://www.forbes.com/sites/lanabandoim/2020/04/08/robots-are-cleaning-grocery-store-floors-during-the-coronavirus-outbreak/.
223
Jame DiBiasio, “A. I. Drives China Techfins into Car Insurance — and Beyond,” Digital Finance, June 3, 2020. https://www.digfingroup.com/insurtech-ai/.
224
Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” Oxford Martin School working paper, September 17, 2013. https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/publications/the-future-of-employment.pdf.
225
Google Scholar citation search shows 7,554 citations to the Frey and Osborne research as of February 21, 2021. https://scholar.google.com/scholar?cites=8817314921922525274&as_sdt=2005&sciodt=0,5&hl=en.
226
“Forrester Predicts Automation Will Displace 24.7 Million Jobs and Add 14.9 Million Jobs By 2027,” Forrester, April 3, 2017. https://go.forrester.com/press-newsroom/forrester-predicts-automation-will-displace-24-7-million-jobs-and-add-14-9-million-jobs-by-2027/.
227
“Robots ‘to Replace 20 Million Factory Jobs’,” BBC News, June 26, 2019. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48760799.
228
John Detrixhe, “Deutsche Bank’s CEO Hints Half Its Workers Could Be Replaced by Machines,” Quartz, July 8, 2019. https://qz.com/1123703/deutsche-bank-ceo-john-cryan-suggests-half-its-workers-could-be-replaced-by-machines/.
229
Eric J. Savitz, “UiPath Stock Has Strong Debut, Stock Soars 25 percent From IPO Price,” Barron’s, April 21, 2021. https://www.barrons.com/articles/uipath-stock-has-strong-debut-stock-soars-25-from-ipo-price-51619031782.
230
U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “All Employees, Manufacturing,” FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 1939). https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP. This represented about one in five of all non-agricultural American workers.
231
“Productivity per Hour Worked,” Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/labor-productivity-per-hour-PennWorldTable.
232
Mark Muro, “It Won’t Be Easy to Bring Back Millions of Manufacturing Jobs,” Brookings, November 18, 2016. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2016/11/18/it-wont-be-easy-to-bring-back-millions-of-manufacturing-jobs/.
233
Agis Salpukas, “General Motors Reports ‘80 Loss of $763 Million,” New York Times, February 3, 1981. https://www.nytimes.com/1981/02/03/business/general-motors-reports-80-loss-of-763-million.html.
234
One popular practice in Exponential Age firms is to use large numbers of contractors and temporary workers alongside full-time employees. In Google’s case, this “shadow work force” was about the same size at the full-time employee base. However, this doesn’t fundamentally challenge my argument. (See Daisuke Wakabayashi, “Google’s Shadow Work Force: Temps Who Outnumber Full-Time Employees,” New York Times, 28 May 2019, section Technology. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/28/technology/google-temp-workers.html.)
235
“Employment — Employment Rate — OECD Data,” TheOECD. http://data.oecd.org/emp/employment-rate.htm.
236
“Unemployment, Total (percent of Total Labor Force),” World Bank Data. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS.
237
Hans P. Moravec, Mind Children: The Future of Robot and Human Intelligence (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1988), p. 15.
238
«Поменяться местами» (англ. Trading Places) — комедийный кинофильм 1983 года режиссера Джона Лэндиса с участием Эдди Мёрфи и Дэна Эйкройда. Лента получила две премии BAFTA и ряд других наград. Прим. ред.
239
“Liquidity, Volatility, Fragility,” Goldman Sachs Global Macro Research, 68, June 2018.
240
John Gittelson, “End of Era: Passive Equity Funds Surpass Active in Epic Shift,” Bloomberg, September 11, 2019. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-11/passive-u-s-equity-funds-eclipse-active-in-epic-industry-shift.
241
“March of the Machines — The Stockmarket Is Now Run by Computers, Algorithms and Passive Managers,” Economist, October 5, 2019. https://www.economist.com/briefing/2019/10/05/the-stockmarket-is-now-run-by-computers-algorithms-and-passive-managers.
242
Майкл Полани (1891–1976) — английский физик, химик и философ. Наиболее известен своими работами по физической химии и философии науки. Автор «концепции личностного (или неявного, молчаливого) знания». Прим. ред.
243
Michael Polanyi and Amartya Sen, The Tacit Dimension (Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 2009), p. 4.
244
Дэвид Грэбер (1961–2020) — американский антрополог и общественный деятель, профессор Лондонской школы экономики. Наиболее известные работы Грэбера — «Долг: первые 5000 лет истории», «Бредовая работа. Трактат о распространении бессмысленного труда». Прим. ред.
245
David Graeber, Bullshit Jobs: A Theory (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2018), p. 236.
246
Carl Benedikt Frey, The Technology Trap: Capital, Labor, and Power in the Age of Automation (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2019), p. 311.
247
Staci D. Kramer, “The Biggest Thing Amazon Got Right: The Platform,” Gigaom, October 12, 2011. https://gigaom.com/2011/10/12/419-the-biggest-thing-amazon-got-right-the-platform/.
248
The approach has become de rigueur among other digital cognoscenti, but Bezos’s email should surely be considered as one of the single most important internal communications of all time.
249
Chris Johnston, “Amazon Opens a Supermarket with No Checkouts,” BBC News, January 22, 2018. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-42769096.
250
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UAW запланировал кампанию по расклейке листовок с лозунгом «Юнионизм, а не фордизм» через дорогу от завода Форда в Ривер-Руж. Профсоюзные организаторы требовали повышения заработной платы и уменьшения рабочего дня, но были жестоко избиты сотрудниками внутренней службы безопасности завода. Прим. ред.
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The phrase “the world is spiky” was originally used by Richard Florida in his essay “The World Is Spiky” in Atlantic Monthly, October 2005. Florida used it to describe the relative inequalities across and within countries and, in particular, the disproportionate importance of large cities in economic development. I use the term in a slightly different context, referring to the overall breakdown of the thesis that technology necessarily enables single large global markets, mediated by a set of common rules.
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Общий регламент защиты персональных данных (англ. General Data Protection Regulation) — постановление Европейского союза, с его помощью Европейский парламент, Совет Европейского союза и Европейская комиссия усиливают и унифицируют защиту персональных данных всех лиц в Европейском союзе (ЕС). Постановление также направлено на экспорт данных из ЕС. Прим. ред.
365
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«Новые войны» можно описать как смесь войны, организованной преступности и массовых нарушений прав человека. В этих войнах принимают участие как глобальные, так и локальные, как государственные, так и частные участники. Войны ведутся ради частных политических целей с использованием тактики террора и дестабилизации. Прим. ред.
377
Запрещенная в России террористическая организация. Прим. ред.
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389
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390
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396
В конце 2020 года Министерство юстиции США предъявило обвинения шести российским гражданам, которые якобы входят в группировку Sandworm. Минюст США связывает группировку Sandworm с атаками на критическую инфраструктуру Украины, выборы во Франции, Олимпийские игры в Пхенчхане, разработкой шифровальщика NotPetya и другими инцидентами. Прим. ред.
397
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398
Обвинения России во вмешательстве в американские выборы 2016 года отрицаются российскими официальными лицами, в том числе лично президентом России. Прим. ред.
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401
В России о заражении NotPetya сообщили «Роснефть» и «Башнефть». Прим. ред.
402
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413
Jack Stubbs and Christopher Bing, “Facebook
414
Исследовательский центр Европарламента опубликовал доклад, в котором проанализировал протесты, прошедшие в США в 2016 году. В заключении доклада подчеркивается, что доказательства вмешательства России в выборы 2016 года не найдены, но это не повод терять бдительность. Прим. ред.
415
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416
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417
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418
Wesley R. Moy and Kacper Gradon, “COVID-19 Effects and Russian Disinformation Campaigns,” Homeland Security Affairs, December 2020. https://www.hsaj.org/articles/16533.
419
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420
Peter Walker, “New National Security Unit Set Up to Tackle Fake News in UK,” Guardian, January 23, 2018. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/23/new-national-security-unit-will-tackle-spread-of-fake-news-in-uk.
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422
Micah Zenko, “Obama’s Final Drone Strike Data,” Council on Foreign Relations, 2017. https://www.cfr.org/blog/obamas-final-drone-strike-data.
423
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428
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430
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431
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432
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Joseph Trevithick, “RAF Uses Autonomous Drone Swarm Loaded with Decoys to Overwhelm Mock Enemy Air Defenses,” Drive, October 8, 2020. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/36950/raf-tests-swarm-loaded-with-britecloud-electronic-warfare-decoys-to-overwhelm-air-defenses.
434
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437
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438
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439
Jindan-Karena Kann, “Autonomous Weapons Systems and the Liability Gap, Part One: Introduction to Autonomous Weapons Systems and International Criminal Liability,” Rethinking SLIC, June 15, 2019. https://www.rethinkingslic.org/blog/criminal-law/51-autonomous-weapons-systems-and-the-liability-gap-part-one-introduction-to-autonomous-weapon-systems-and-international-criminal-liability.
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441
Terri Moon Cronk, “DOD’s Cyber Strategy of the Past Year Outlined before Congress,” US Department of Defense, March 6, 2020. https://www.defense.gov/Explore/News/Article/Article/2103843/dods-cyber-strategy-of-past-year-outlined-before-congress/.
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443
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444
Reid Standish, “Why Is Finland Able to Fend Off Putin’s Information War?” Foreign Policy, March 1, 2017. https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/03/01/why-is-finland-able-to-fend-off-putins-information-war/.
445
Eliza Mackintosh, “Finland Is Winning the War on Fake News. Other Nations Want the Blueprint,” CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2019/05/europe/finland-fake-news-intl/.
446
Azeem Azhar, “How Taiwan Is Using Technology to Foster Democracy,” Exponential View, October 23, 2020. https://www.exponentialview.co/p/how-taiwan-is-using-technology-to.
447
Ben Buchanan and Fiona S. Cunningham, “Preparing the Cyber Battlefield: Assessing a Novel Escalation Risk in a Sino-American Crisis,” Texas National Security Review, October 2020. http://tnsr.org/2020/10/preparing-the-cyber-battlefield-assessing-a-novel-escalation-risk-in-a-sino-american-crisis/.
448
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449
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450
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455
“Facebook
456
Chris Hughes, “It’s Time to Break Up Facebook
457
Майкл Сэндел (р. 1953) — американский политический философ, профессор Гарвардского университета, автор книг, переведенных на 23 языка. Washington Post называла его «возможно, самым известным университетским профессором США». Прим. ред.
458
Michael Sandel, What Money Can’t Buy: The Moral Limits of Markets (London: Penguin Books, 2012).
459
Юрген Хабермас (р. 1929) — немецкий философ и социолог, профессор Франкфуртского университета имени Иоганна Вольфганга Гёте. Один из наиболее влиятельных политических и социальных мыслителей второй половины XX века, создатель концепций коммуникативного действия и этики дискурса. Прим. ред.
460
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461
Лестер Лоуренс Лессиг (р. 1961) — американский общественный активист, профессор права в Гарвардском университете. Известен прежде всего в связи со своей борьбой за изменение законодательства в области авторского права, особенно в применении к интернету. Основатель организации Creative Commons и идеологический вдохновитель движения за свободную информацию. Прим. ред.
462
Lawrence Lessig, “Code Is Law,” Harvard Magazine, January 1, 2000. https://harvardmagazine.com/2000/01/code-is-law-html.
463
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464
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Paul Mozur, “A Genocide Incited on Facebook
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474
Brian X. Chen, “I Downloaded the Information That Facebook
475
Gabriel J. X. Dance, Nicholas Confessore and Michael LaForgia, “Facebook
476
Megan Leonhardt, “Democrats and Republicans in Congress Agree: The System That Determines Credit Scores Is ‘Broken’,” CNBC, February 27, 2019. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/27/american-consumer-credit-rating-system-is-broken.html.
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488
Deepa Seetharaman and Jeff Horwitz, “Facebook
489
Джеймс Бойл (р. 1959) — шотландский правовед, писатель, специалист в области авторского, информационного права и общественного достояния, один из основателей и бывший председатель Creative Commons, автор нескольких книг и более чем сотни научных и журнальных статей. Прим. ред.
490
Karl Polanyi quoted in James Boyle, “The Second Enclosure Movement and the Construction of the Public Domain,” Law and Contemporary Problems, 66 (2003), pp. 33–74. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.470983.
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497
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498
For a good discussion of Hardin and Ostrom’s relative contributions to this debate, see Brett Frischmann, Alain Marciano and Giovanni Battista Ramello, “Retrospectives: Tragedy of the Commons after 50 Years,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 33(4), 2019, pp. 211–228. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.33.4.211.
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501
Rino Rappuoli and others, “Vaccinology in the Post — COVID-19 Era,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118(3), 2021. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2020368118.
502
“424B5,” Moderna Stock Offering, SEC. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1682852/000119312520033353/d871325d424b5.htm.
503
“COVID-19 Vaccine Tracker,” March 2020. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker.
504
“Coronavirus: The World in Lockdown in Maps and Charts,” BBC News, April 6, 2020. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52103747.
505
Hannah Mayer et al., “AI Puts Moderna within Striking Distance of Beating COVID-19,” Harvard Business School Digital Initiative, November 24, 2020. https://digital.hbs.edu/artificial-intelligence-machine-learning/ai-puts-moderna-within-striking-distance-of-beating-covid-19/.
506
Carrie Arnold, “How Computational Immunology Changed the Face of COVID-19 Vaccine Development,” Nature Medicine, July 15, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41591-020-00027-9.
507
50 watt-hours is the equivalent of using a typical LED lightbulb for about six hours, using a modern iron for about two minutes, or running a laptop for about thirty minutes.
508
Niall P. Hanan and Julius Y. Anchang, “Satellites Could Soon Map Every Tree on Earth,” Nature, October 14, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-02830-3.
509
This idea was first espoused in 1865 by William Jevons in his essay “The Coal Question.”
510
Sheila Jasanoff, The Ethics of Invention (New York: W. W. Norton and Company, 2016).
511
Melvin Kranzberg, “Technology and History: ‘Kranzberg’s Laws’,” Technology and Culture, 27(3), 1986, pp. 544–560. https://doi.org/10.2307/3105385.
512
Jasonoff, The Ethics of Invention.
